Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Fade Rangers starter against Orioles
Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes will try to end his winless drought on Tuesday when he takes the mound against the St. Louis Cardinals at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The 23-year-old Skenes (4-7, 2.12 ERA) has not earned a win since May 28, and over his last 11 starts, he is 1-5. On Tuesday he is set to square off against the Cardinals’ Andre Pallante (5-4, 4.43).
The top sportsbooks have set Skenes’ total strikeout player prop at 6.5, while Pallante’s is 3.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Skenes Over 6.5 (+107) as a 3.5-star play on its 5-star scale and Pallante Over 3.5 (-125) as a 4-star play.
However, the model has found better MLB betting value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There are two pitcher strikeout player props that the model has rated at 5 stars and one rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Shane Baz Under 6.5 strikeouts (-152) vs. Athletics (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
The SportsLine Projection Model’s numbers suggest that sportsbooks have set this total way too high. The Rays righty (8-3, 4.37) has gone Under 6.5 strikeouts in 13 of 16 starts this season, including 12 of his last 13. In addition, Baz has been much worse at home (5.70 ERA) than on the road (2.91) this season. In his last five home games, Baz has averaged just 3.8 strikeouts per game.
Jacob deGrom Under 7.5 strikeouts (-143) vs. Orioles (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
The model continues to fade deGrom (8-2, 2.08), who has gone Over this number just three times in his last 19 starts, going back to last season. The Rangers righty’s strikeout percentage has dropped every year since a career-high 45.1% in 2021, bottoming out at 25.9% this season. In addition, Baltimore will get its second look in last than a week at deGrom, who struck out seven in 7 innings against the Orioles on Wednesday.
Brandon Young Over 3.5 strikeouts (-115) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5 strikeouts
The Orioles rookie righthander will start against Texas in place of Charlie Morton (elbow tendinitis). Young has made just three major league starts this season, going Over 3.5 strikeouts only once. But he has shown swing-and-miss stuff in the minors, striking out 332 strikeouts in 282 innings. In addition, he is set to face a Texas club that has struggled this season at the plate, with a .226 average and a .656 OPS.
