Winning the AFC East: Can anyone dethrone the Bills in 2025? What each team needs to do to win division

The Buffalo Bills have had the AFC East in a headlock for the last half-decade. As the New England Patriots‘ grip on the division loosened in the post-Tom Brady era, Josh Allen and Co. happily jumped into the driver’s seat and have dominated. Buffalo has claimed the AFC East crown in each of the last five seasons (a franchise record) and is looking to make it six in a row as they look towards 2025.

Of course, that won’t come without at least an attempt by their division rivals to unseat them. However, the oddsmakers see that as an unlikely scenario. Currently, Buffalo is the overwhelming favorite to win the AFC East, priced at -260 for the upcoming season, with the Patriots their closest rival at +500. 

To further hammer that point home, no other team in the entire NFL has more favorable odds to win their respective division than the Bills. The Baltimore Ravens are the second-heaviest favorite to win their division, but those odds are a mere -145. Looking at these odds, we can likely expect Buffalo’s dominance to continue in 2025. 

That said, the division should be more competitive this time around than in seasons past. Both the Jets and Patriots hired new head coaches this offseason and were active in free agency. Meanwhile, the Dolphins — when healthy — have an explosive offense, headlined by Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill. 

Below, we’re going to highlight one thing that each of those clubs needs to do in 2025 in order to unseat the Bills in the division race, and also highlight an area of improvement for Buffalo for them to maintain their status as top dog in the AFC East. 

All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Buffalo Bills

Improved defensive play in key situations

The Bills are massive favorites in the division for good reason. They boast the NFL’s MVP in Josh Allen, and he is the ultimate trump card in this race for another AFC East crown. That said, one thing that could prove to be a hinderance for their chances to win the division and, more broadly, get over the hump in the conference is their lack of clutch play on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically, the Bills ranked last in the NFL in pressure rate (20%) when their opponent had a chance to tie or take the lead in the fourth quarter or overtime. They were also 29th in sack rate over that stretch as well. Moreover, Buffalo had an inability to get off the field on third down in 2024. Including playoffs, Buffalo allowed opponents to convert 44.54% of their third-down opportunities, which was the third highest in the league. 

This offseason, the club did sign pass rusher Joey Bosa as a free agent to help improve the unit, while also drafting corner Maxwell Hairston in the first round out of Kentucky. Buffalo will also have Matt Milano back in the fold after he missed the first chunk of the year due to a torn biceps injury. He registered two sacks in Buffalo’s three playoff games to go along with five total quarterback hits. Those additions, on top of getting key players back healthy, should help improve Buffalo’s defense in 2025, giving them an even wider inside track at winning the division. 

• Projected O/U win total: 11.5 (Over -160, Under +135)
• Our prediction: 13-4

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa needs to stay healthy and play better vs. elite competition

For the Dolphins to have any sort of shot at not only rebounding following an 8-9 season and missing the playoffs for the first time under Mike McDaniel, but also challenging for the division, it centers around Tua Tagovailoa’s availability. The Dolphins quarterback was limited to 11 games last season due to more concussion problems. Those fears of Tagovailoa missing time due to continued head injuries loom over the organization as they enter what feels like a pivotal year for the current core. When he’s on the field, Miami has one of the more explosive offenses in the league. In his 11 starts last season, the Dolphins were 6-5 and averaged 24.1 points per game. When it was anyone other than Tagovailoa under center for the Dolphins in 2024, they were 2-4 and could barely function on offense. 

Miami did add Zach Wilson and rookie Quinn Ewers to somewhat deepen the quarterback depth chart this offseason, but they need Tagovailoa under center for them to be competitive. 

Now, if/when they do get a fully healthy season out of their franchise quarterback, he needs to level up his game against the NFL’s elite competition. Over the last two seasons, the identity of the Dolphins with a healthy Tagovailoa has been a club that can only beat up on bad competition and falters against the top-tier opponents. 

Here’s a look at Tagovailoa’s splits against .500 or worse teams and then above .500 teams over the last two seasons:

That simply has to improve for the Dolphins to contend in 2025 and for Tagovailoa to live up to the four-year, $212.4 million extension he signed last offseason. 

• Projected O/U win total: 8.5 (Over +160, Under -190)
• Our prediction: 6-11

New York Jets

Justin Fields becomes latest QB to enjoy late-career breakout

New York’s gamble with Justin Fields feels like a worthwhile roll of the dice. The club signed the former Steelers quarterback to a two-year, $40 million deal in free agency, and Fields now has the opportunity to follow in the footsteps of Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold to enjoy a late-career breakout. Those signal-callers needed to find the right team to truly find their footing in the NFL, and that could be the case for Fields, who originally entered the league as a first-round pick of the Chicago Bears before being traded to the Steelers last offseason and having a one-season stint in Pittsburgh. 

In his short showing as the starter last season (six starts), Fields showed some promise. The Steelers offense averaged 20.7 points per game, and Fields averaged 166.8 passing yards per game over that stretch. While that doesn’t exactly pop off the page, the most encouraging aspect of Fields’ showing last year was his 0.8% turnover rate. That was a massive improvement from his NFL-high 2.8% turnover rate during his tenure in Chicago. 

If Fields can now limit turnovers, make timely throws, and still be dynamic with his legs, that’s enough for New York to be scrappy in the division race. That’s especially true if the defense continues to be stout after a 2024 season where they held opponents to a 5.0 yards per play average, which was tied for the second-lowest in the NFL. 

• Projected O/U win total: 5.5 (Over -155, Under +130)
• Our prediction: 7-10

New England Patriots

Produces a top-five defense in the NFL

The New England Patriots have plenty of buzz surrounding them heading into 2025 after hiring Mike Vrabel as their head coach and Drake Maye ascending to Year 2 after a promising rookie season. While Vrabel molding New England into his image and Maye’s development will naturally be key aspects to whether or not they’ll succeed in 2025, the Patriots defense could prove to be their superpower. 

The bulk of New England’s free agent spending spree this offseason primarily focused on the defensive side of the ball, building on its strength. The club signed Carlton Davis, who now forms a lethal cornerback duo with Christian Gonzalez after the rising third-year defensive back just put together a second-team All-Pro season in 2024. Last year, Gonzalez (53%) and Davis (57%) were among the top-five cornerbacks in the NFL, allowing the lowest completion percentage when targeted (min. 75 targets). 

Along the defensive line, Milton Williams, who had the highest pressure rate (14.2%) on the Super Bowl champion Eagles last season, was the crowning addition in free agency and also is paired nicely with Christian Barmore on the interior. They should be able to provide pressure up the middle, while Harold Landry — who Vrabel coached in Tennessee — has the promise of returning to his double-digit sack production now that he’s reunited with his former coach. Furthermore, middle linebacker Robert Spillane also adds a high motor to the defense as well. He is the only player in the NFL to record 300-plus tackles, five sacks, and five interceptions over the last two seasons. 

These addition, coupled with emerging players already on the roster, gives New England’s defense a tremendously high ceiling. If they can improve to become a top-five defense in the league, that makes Maye’s life on offense worlds easier and could prove to be a thorn in Buffalo’s side as they push for a playoff berth. 

• Projected O/U win total: -7.5 (Over -160, Under +135)
• Our prediction: 11-6